Ceris-Cnr, W.P. N° 3 /2008 D0 = Marginal Social Benefit D1= Private Social Benefit S0 M0 R1 C0 R0 M1 S1 R2 R3 C1 R D2 = Marginal Social Benefit after the subsidy D0 = D1 S1 C1 M2 R3 R4 S2 R5 C2 R FIGURE 4. THE EFFECT OF PUBLIC GRANTS ON THE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF BUSINESS R&D IN PRESENCE OF SPILLOVERS Here, the new equilibrium (the long-run equilibrium) is in M2 which is, in turn, a sub-optimal point since subsidy spillovers have in the meantime created a new curve of marginal social benefits (D2) determining the social optimum in the point S2 where the cost is C2. In other words, any attempt to correct market failure by injecting subsidies could fail in presence of significant spillover effects since dynamic structural change (cost reductions) activated by the subsidy through the spillovers modify the expected allocation. The subsidy, nevertheless, will produce a substantial technical change and production growth (as long as directed towards sectors with higher spillovers). According to the analysis of Klette, Møen and Griliches (2000, p. 483), a full cost-benefit analysis of an R&D support would take into account the estimation of the following expression: [4] w( s ) = ∑ Δπ (s ; s ) + ∑ i i∈Sub i j∈ NSub Δπ j ( s ) + ∑ k ∈Rest Δπ k ( s ) + ∑ Δ(CS ) − d (s) l l ∈C where Sub is the set of subsidized firms, NSub that of non-subsidized, Rest that of the rest of the economy, CS the consumer surplus and d(s) the loss associated to the subsidy. The first term on the right-hand-side of the [4] represents the change in profits of subsidized firms, that depends on the subsidy received (i.e., the direct effect of si) and the effect of the change in profits of the other supported firms (i.e., the indirect effect labeled s ); the second term is the change in profits of nonsubsidized firms (belonging to the same industry) that are a mixture of rent and knowledge 14